Soybean futures are expected to begin Thursday's day session firmer, stabilizing after Wednesday's setback on residual support from higher grain futures and dryness concerns in the U.S. Delta.  Firmer overnight prices serve as an early signal of price direction.  Overnight, Chicago Board of Trade July soybeans were 1 1/2 cents higher at $9.50, and November soybeans were 1 1/2 cents higher at $9.04. Analysts expect soybeans to start 2 cents to 3 cents higher.

This market has been quiet this week, overall trending lower due to outside market influence.  Continuing concerns about European economic recovery plans, jobless claims, and overall weak outside markets led to the sharp downward trend on Wednesday.  Market opened stronger on Thursday and should see slight increase.  Don’t expect big move in soybean oil.  Market should hold steady to down through holiday weekend.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Thursday amid broad-based selling pressure across most asset classes due to concerns over China's slowing economic growth and worries about a possible double dip in global economies, trade participants said. The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended MYR27 lower at MYR2,346 a metric ton.

 

Earlier this week NOAA expanded the size of the area closed to fishing in the Gulf to include 80,228 square miles.  This represents an area the size of the state of Kansas.

 

Gulf Shrimp- Market is firm.  Good catch rates have been noted in western parts of Louisiana and has helped improved some inventories.  Demand has eased slightly and pricing pressures are expected to ease on some sizes.

 

Black Tiger Shrimp- Market is firm.  Supplies are still listed as tight and short.

 

White Shrimp-  Market is listed as steady.

 

Snow Crab- Market is firm.  Demand is listed as good while supplies are listed light.

 

Salmon-

The Chilean market is listed as steady with supply looking better for only a fair demand. 

The European market firmed across the board as inventories are listed as tight. 

Wild Salmon markets are listed as weak.

 

Mahi- Market remains steady.

 

 

Cheese-Market is listed as steady.  Cheese inventories continue to be above average however recent reports show that the gap is narrowing versus same time last year.  Some reports note that Milk fat and protein levels in milk are lower than normal for this time of the year.  This means that it is taking more milk to make the same amount of cheese.

 

 

 

Butter- Market is firm. Cream supplies are listed as tight and there are reports of manufactures selling their cream and taking butter out of storage to fill current orders.  There is much concern on what butter inventories will look like later this year.  Inventories are at their lowest levels since 1998.

 

 

 

Shell Eggs-  Market is listed as steady to firming.  Retail demand has picked up across the country.  Foodservice demand is still listed as active.  Overall inventories dropped versus the previous week by 8%.  Demand has increased on the larger sizes and has caused inventories to tighten.

Egg Products- Market is listed as steady.

 

Live hog pricing was steady to weak as holiday  needs  appear to be covered. Futures also weakened slightly. The slaughter was also down slightly from last week. Hog weights dropped slightly from last week. Supplier margin, while still positive, did erode somewhat.

The call is for Butts to decline for a couple of weeks and then pull steady. Loins both boneless and bone in should hold fairly steady for the next two to three weeks.  Bone in sirloins should hold steady for the next three weeks or so also. Spareribs should come off over the next couple of weeks then steady up although you can expect them to trade in a wide range from supplier to supplier dependant on how well they sold up for the fourth. Bellies should be steady for the next 3 weeks or so. The call on cushion meat is down for the next couple of weeks and then steady until late July. Asking prices for ham was slightly higher on Wednesday and Thursday but the call is mostly steady in the short run at least. Trimmings were trading mixed on Wednesday afternoon. 42%  trim was unchanged while 72% was discounting, supply being readily available. The call is for the trim market to be soft for awhile.

JBS Swift has expressed an interest in purchasing Smithfield. If this were to happen, they would control 40% of the hog slaughter. The federal regulatory agencies would probably have something to say about this as they did with their attempt to purchase National in the beef industry. Time will tell.

 

 

Live cattle traded mostly steady with the previous week. Cattle weights held fairly steady with last week.

The round complex continued under pressure with discounting seen. This should steady out after the fourth. Middle meats are mixed. There was some scattered reductions noted on Rib meats on the trade levels on Wednesday. The call is for them to fall some after the fourth then steady for a couple of weeks. Strip loins are well supported and firm for now. They may fall after the fourth then be steady to down for the next couple of weeks. Briskets are well sold and steady. Might see some short lived reductions after the fourth but then it should steady out. The chuck complex was down on trade at the end of the week. This should hold until after the fourth then it should steady out. Grinds were steady this week. With a short production week next we can expect some increases through the fourth. After the pipe line refills the market should go steady on grinds..

Beef suppliers are still making money, in fact margin per head increased from last week. All in all not much change from last week. Pretty typical market for the fourth except perhaps demand not quiet what we have seen in the past. The market was soft through a time when typical we see increases. I feel the traditional after fourth drop is coming a little quicker and may be slightly longer than some feel. No crash but a little slower to steady out than expected.

 

The heat in the south continues to put a damper on live bird weights.  Birds continue to come in light therefore less product availability.  Demand appears to be basic with offerings limited.   Majority of plants will be closed on Monday in observance of the holiday.  With last week’s  announcement of the Russian ban lifted, (although no date set yet) dark meat seems to have a renewed interest.  Export markets little by little are starting to inquire about future ship dates.  This could influence future steadier market levels.

 

WOGs and whole birds are steady and trade at market.  Whole breasts and breast fronts are in balance.  Tenders and cutlets remain full steady with limited product availability. 

 

Wings are well supported and continue to see market increase this week.  Leg quarters, legs and thigh meat have cleared and have become steadier as

Retail holiday ads are out.